01 / Verifiable record
What stands without GSSI.
Public institutional acts, fiscal and market data, legal and constitutional texts, original-language source material and dated records that can be checked without accepting GSSI methodology.
GSSI Research · Method and evidence
Evidence must survive without the conclusion.
GSSI separates the evidentiary record from analytical judgement so a reader can see what is independently checkable, what requires structural interpretation and where GSSI is taking a view.
Evidence discipline
Three layers. Kept deliberately distinct.
02 / Structural interpretation
What the evidence means.
Analysis of authority, resilience, dependencies, causation and system behaviour: the structural reading that connects otherwise separate facts into an institutional picture.
03 / Proprietary judgement
Where GSSI takes a view.
The final assessment is stated as judgement, not disguised as fact, and is exposed to competing explanations, defined failure conditions and later outcome testing.
Why Iran became the proving ground
Test the method where surface visibility is weakest.
Iran combines sanctions-distorted financial signals, fragmented primary-source visibility, constitutional complexity and multiple state actors communicating through different institutional registers.
Native-language Farsi access makes it possible to examine institutional vocabulary, register and source hierarchy at source rather than through translated summaries.
Iran was the proving ground, not the franchise.
The method is intended to travel, but not mechanically: each sovereign system requires its own fiscal, constitutional, institutional and actor baselines.
Longitudinal corpus
The comparative advantage is institutional memory.
Project Sesame developed into a longitudinal corpus of Iranian institutional behaviour. New signals can therefore be tested against accumulated actor and institutional baselines rather than read as isolated events.
01
Baseline institutional map
Authority, actors, constitutional structure and known constraints.
02
Continuous dated observations
New evidence preserved with timing, provenance and institutional context.
03
Cross-register comparison
Continuity, contradiction, hardening and genuine novelty become visible over time.
04
VERITAS current-state assessment
The latest signal is tested against the accumulated sovereign record before a trajectory is assigned.
Analytical records
Selected dated propositions, preserved before the outcome.
These are public summaries of a private source trail. The underlying confidential documents are not reproduced. The purpose is to show how a proposition was framed, dated and later tested — not to turn hindsight into a prediction score.
August 2025
Article 176 · Hormuz authority and market transmission
GSSI’s August 2025 record stated that IRGC commanders could seize assets or close Hormuz under Article 176 authority and modelled the downstream chain into war-risk insurance withdrawal/repricing, shipping and commodity-market disruption.
29 January 2026
Submarine / Indian Ocean theatre activation
A pre-war annex identified the Arabian Sea and wider Indian Ocean as the relevant open-water envelope and specified Day 2–14 as the likely activation window for the sustained phase.
29 January 2026
Article 111 · Constitutional continuity
The pre-war resilience stack specified a constitutional continuity mechanism under leadership loss, including an Article 111 temporary leadership layer and pre-delegated response architecture.
How GSSI treats its analytical record
GSSI preserves dated propositions and later assesses them against observable outcomes. The internal register distinguishes clean validation from partial validation, contradiction or miss, unresolved propositions and events that were not triggered. Public examples are selected from that wider register; publication of a successful example does not imply that every forecast validated.
GSSI is not publishing an aggregate hit-rate until the counting and scoring methodology is frozen on a consistent basis. The underlying record can be substantiated to serious counterparties under appropriate confidentiality.